The sources and nature of future conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region
Titel:
The sources and nature of future conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region
Auteur:
Malik, J. Mohan
Verschenen in:
Comparative strategy
Paginering:
Jaargang 16 (1997) nr. 1 pagina's 33-65
Jaar:
1997-01
Inhoud:
More than ever, a sense of vision is required to recognize the potency of new forces at work in the international system which will influence the course of future history and alter the face of war. This article looks at key trends in global politics, and the sources and nature of future conflicts in the Asia-Pacific with respect to the next 50 years. It argues that just as the nineteenth century was Jominian and the twentieth century Clausewitzian, the twenty-first century may well be influenced by the strategic paradigm of Sun Tzu and Liddell Hart, the strategists of “limited war.” “Limited wars fought for limited purposes with varying degrees of intensity” will be the wave of the future. In Asia, the probability of a medium-intensity conflict in the foreseeable future is higher than that of a high-intensity or low-intensity conflict. Future war will be a war about time, not about ground. Conditions of nuclear deterrence will apply, but info-war and space capabilities will assume greater significance. Integrated joint warfare— Air, Land, Sea, Space interface—will be a key feature of future war. Information warfare and the ongoing revolution in military affairs (e.g., nonlethal weaponry) may have led some to believe that this is a new age in which war will be bloodless, but technology will make no conceivable war casualty free.
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