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| Titel: |
A statistical method for estimating uncertainties in the total global budgets of atmospheric trace gases |
| Auteur: |
Khalil, M. A. K. |
| Verschenen in: |
Journal of environmental science and health. Part A, Toxic/hazardous substances & environmental engineering |
| Paginering: | Jaargang 27 (1992) nr. 3 pagina's 755-770 |
| Jaar: |
1992-04 |
| Inhoud: |
The global cycles of trace gases are described by a balance between the atmospheric distributions and the annual emission and removal rates. Often for each source a range of possible annual emissions is consistent with experimental observations. When these ranges are added together to produce a total annual emission rate, a range is usually quoted with a lower limit consisting of the sum of the lower limits of emissions from each source and an upper limit as the sum of the upper limits of emissions from each source. This process often leads to an unrealistically large range for the total source even though the uncertainties in emissions from individual sources are justified. This paper deals with a method by which the uncertainties in the total emissions can be interpreted statistically. When applied to 11 global budgets of CH4, two budgets of CO, and a budget of carbonyl sulfide (OCS), the 95% confidence limits of total global emissions are about half as big as the range of total emissions derived by adding the maxima and minima of emissions from all the sources. For the methane budgets, in spite of the large uncertainties in emissions from individual sources, the total global emission rates have an uncertainty (95% CL) of only ±10 to ±20%, depending on the budget. |
| Uitgever: |
Taylor & Francis |
| Bronbestand: |
Elektronische Wetenschappelijke Tijdschriften |
Details van artikel 1 van 24 gevonden artikelen
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