Modular Neural Networks for Medical Prognosis: Quantifying the Benefits of Combining Neural Networks for Survival Prediction
Title:
Modular Neural Networks for Medical Prognosis: Quantifying the Benefits of Combining Neural Networks for Survival Prediction
Author:
Ohno-Machado, Lucila Musen, Mark A.
Appeared in:
Connection science
Paging:
Volume 9 (1997) nr. 1 pages 71-86
Year:
1997-03-01
Contents:
This paper describes a medical application of modular neural networks (NNs) for temporal pattern recognition. In order to increase the reliability of prognostic indices for patients living with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), survival prediction was performed in a system composed of modular NNS that classified cases according to death in a certain year of follow-up. The output of each NN module corresponded to the probability of survival in a given year. Inputs were the values of demographic, clinical and laboratory variables. The results of the modules were combined to produce survival curves for individuals. The NNs were trained by backpropagation and the results were evaluated in test sets of previously unseen cases. We showed that, for certain combinations of NN modules, the performance of the prognostic index, measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, was significantly improved (p 0.05). We also used calibration measurements to quantify the benefits of combining NN modules, and show why, when and how NNs should be combined for building prognostic models.
Journal description