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| Titel: |
Coping With Uncertainty: Dilemmas of Defense Planning |
| Auteur: |
Gray, Colin S. |
| Verschenen in: |
Comparative strategy |
| Paginering: | Jaargang 27 (2008) nr. 4 pagina's 324-331 |
| Jaar: |
2008-07 |
| Inhoud: |
How to cope with uncertainty—this is the central unavoidable challenge to defense planning. The problem is how to finesse the fact that the future is unknown. Although we cannot know what will happen, we can call upon a great deal of experience to provide helpful guidance. We know: that the future is not “foreseeable”; that the past is our best guide to the future; that history often is non-linear; that history moves more in circles than ever-onwards toward 'progress'; that the present is an unreliable guide to what is to come; that history is too complex to be reconstructed usefully by playing “what if …”; that scientific prediction is utterly unreliable; that tragedy happens; that human folly is always possible; that people matter profoundly; and that people(s) fight for reasons of “fear, honor, and interest,” as they always have. Warned by these major caveats, we can adopt some useful precepts to guide defense planning. |
| Uitgever: |
Routledge |
| Bronbestand: |
Elektronische Wetenschappelijke Tijdschriften |
Details van artikel 8 van 11 gevonden artikelen
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