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| Titel: |
Unheeded warnings: Some intelligence lessons of the 1930s and 1940s |
| Auteur: |
Groth, Alexander J. Froeliger, John Drew |
| Verschenen in: |
Comparative strategy |
| Paginering: | Jaargang 10 (1991) nr. 4 pagina's 331-346 |
| Jaar: |
1991-10 |
| Inhoud: |
Unlike much of the literature about political and military decisionmaking, which deals with “errors” on a case-by-case basis, this essay addresses the problem in its endemic aspects. A three-fold model of built-in uncertainty is applied to all political and political-military transactions. It features diffuseness or ambiguity of language; multiplicity of messages received; and most critically, intellectually “unneutral” predispositions of monitors and decisionmakers called on to evaluate the information they receive. Examples are given from the period of the 1930s and 1940s including the tragic underestimation of Hitler by many Jews; Chamberlain's appeasement policy; Stalin's apparent trust of Hitler; the French response to the Nazi Blitzkrieg in 1940; and the American tragedy at Pearl Harbor. Given the nature of the problem, prospects of more accurate, scientific intelligence mechanisms in the foreseeable future are discounted. |
| Uitgever: |
Routledge |
| Bronbestand: |
Elektronische Wetenschappelijke Tijdschriften |
Details van artikel 7 van 7 gevonden artikelen
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