Much as Martin van Creveld predicted in 1991, contemporary conflicts have tended to occur within, rather than between, states. Conversely, van Creveld's contention that such conflicts would not be amenable to Clausewitzian analysis has been the subject of much debate. More specifically, Clausewitz's famous 'Trinity' has been shown to be capable of accommodating non-state strategic actors as readily as the state-based variety. Quite what this means for the strategic analysis of contemporary conflict was not clearly spelt out in the debate on the Trinity, however. In this article, therefore, an attempt is made to present a specific approach to employing the Trinity as an aid to strategic analysis, with particular reference to the ethnic conflicts in the Balkans and the current war in Iraq.
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