Indonesian Foreign Debt: Headed for A Crisis or Financing Sustainable Growth?
Titel:
Indonesian Foreign Debt: Headed for A Crisis or Financing Sustainable Growth?
Auteur:
Radelet, Steven
Verschenen in:
Bulletin of Indonesian economic studies
Paginering:
Jaargang 31 (1995) nr. 3 pagina's 39-72
Jaar:
1995-12
Inhoud:
This paper examines the build-up in Indonesia's foreign debt between 1981 and 1993, and explores the potential for a debt crisis during Repelita VI. It concludes that Indonesia is not headed toward a crisis in the immediate future- Borrowed funds have generally financed productive investments, contributing to rapid growth in GDP and exports since the late 1980s. If recent trends continue, debt should ease gradually; if not, the economy could withstand a substantial balance of payments shock, at least for a while. A debt servicing problem, although unlikely, is conceivable by the end of the decade. Short-term debt is growing rapidly, non-oil export growth has slowed, and debt service remains high. Appropriate government actions to reduce the potential for a crisis include further deregulation to support growth in non-oil exports, discouraging implicit government guarantees for private sector projects, and reducing government exposure to yen-denominated debt.
Tijdschrift beschrijving