The significance of financial risks in BOT procurement
Titel:
The significance of financial risks in BOT procurement
Auteur:
Lam, Ka Chi Chow, Wing Sing
Verschenen in:
Building research & information
Paginering:
Jaargang 27 (1999) nr. 2 pagina's 84-95
Jaar:
1999-03-01
Inhoud:
This paper explores the significance of the financial risk characteristics of Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) projects. The objective was to identify and discuss the significance of the types of financial risk variables in conjunction with the different phases of procurement. A survey was therefore conducted to investigate the nature of the relationships between the financial risk variables and the different phases of BOT projects. 'Interest rate fluctuation' was the most significant financial risk variable in the pre-investment phase. For the implementation phase, both the variables 'design deficiency' and 'time overrun' were found to be highly statistically significant. The variable 'time overrun' was found to be the most statistically significant in the construction phase. The majority of the risk variables were considered to be moderately significant in the operations phase; these included 'competition', 'currency exchange restrictions' and 'defective products or facilities'. A mathematical model employing discriminant analysis was established to demonstrate the classification of financial risk variables in relation to the five BOT project phases. Cet article s'interesse a la signification des caracteristiques des risques financiers associes aux projets de construction-exploitation-transfert (BOT). Il s'agissait de recenser et d'examiner la signification des types de variables en matiere de risques financiers en regard des differentes phases d'approvisionnement. On a donc procede a une enquete sur la nature des relations entre les variables des risques financiers et les differentes phases des projets BOT. Les 'fluctuations des taux d'interet' constituent la variable la plus importante lors de la phase de preinvestissement. Pour la phase de mise en oeuvre, les deux variables les plus significatives sont les 'defauts de conception' et les 'retards dans l'execution des travaux'. Cette derniere est, statistiquement, la plus importante lors de la phase de construction. On considere que, dans leur ensemble, les variables ont une signification moderee lors de la phase d'exploitation; ces variables comprennent la 'concurrence', les 'restrictions relatives au change' et 'les produits ou moyens defectueux'. On a elabore un modele mathematique base sur l'analyse discriminante pour etablir le classement des variables des risques financiers par rapport aux cinq phases des projets BOT.
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