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| Titel: |
National Economic Policy Simulations with Global Interdependencies: A Sensitivity Analysis for Germany |
| Auteur: |
Meyer, Bernd Lutz, Christian Schnur, Peter Zika, Gerd |
| Verschenen in: |
Economic systems research |
| Paginering: | Jaargang 19 (2007) nr. 1 pagina's 37-55 |
| Jaar: |
2007-03 |
| Inhoud: |
Policy simulations for national economies with econometric models, in general, are done using a standalone national model with exogenous export values and import prices. In a globalised world, such an exercise is critical, since the policy in question may change the export prices and the import volumes of the particular country and induce via international trade a change of the economic activities of the global economy and a feedback to the export values and import prices of the particular country. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis for Germany comparing the impacts of a shock on investment in a standalone simulation using the multisector model INFORGE with the results, which occur, if the same model is linked to the global multicountry/multisector model GINFORS endogenising Germany`s export values and import prices. The results are striking: the effect on real GDP is 50% higher in the global simulation than in the standalone case. Because of the specialisation in trade the differences on the sector level are even stronger. |
| Uitgever: |
Routledge |
| Bronbestand: |
Elektronische Wetenschappelijke Tijdschriften |
Details van artikel 95 van 152 gevonden artikelen
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