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  Prbposterior expected loss as a scoring rule for prior distributions
 
 
Titel: Prbposterior expected loss as a scoring rule for prior distributions
Auteur: Garthwaite, Paul H.
Verschenen in: Communications in statistics
Paginering: Jaargang 21 (1992) nr. 12 pagina's 3601-3619
Jaar: 1992
Inhoud: A scoring rule for evaluating the usefulness of an assessed prior distribution should reflect the purpose for which the distribution is to be used. In this paper we suppose that sample data is to become available and that the posterior distribution will be used to estimate some quantity under a quadratic loss function. The utility of a prior distribution is consequently determined by its preposterior expected quadratic loss. It is shown that this loss function has properties desirable in a scoring rule and formulae are derived for calculating the scores it gives in some common problems. Many scoring rules give a very poor score to any improper prior distribution but, in contrast, the scoring rule proposed here provides a meaningful measure for comparing the usefulness of assessed prior distributions and non-informative (improper) prior distributions. Results for making this comparison in various situations are also given.
Uitgever: Taylor & Francis
Bronbestand: Elektronische Wetenschappelijke Tijdschriften
 
 

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